Cattle Are Going to Get Bigger

Article published on TerrainAg.com. Author Don Close is Terrain’s senior animal protein analyst. Article Originally Published in the February Issue of the National Cattlemen Magazine.

Carcass weights received a great deal of attention in 2024. But the increase in weights should be no surprise, as it follows a decades-long trend. While there may be little blips along the way, no one should expect the industry to change course dramatically.

Yes, carcass weights played a big role in 2024’s beef market. Cow slaughter for the year was down 18%, fed beef production was down 4%, and total beef production for the year was virtually unchanged, according to the USDA.

Cattle feeders did what you’d expect them to. The value of gain has been nearly double the cost of gain. And with an attractive Choice/Select spread alongside lower feed costs, cattle feeders feeding for the grid left cattle on feed additional days to improve grading rates. They worked as much as possible to improve grade and avoid Yield Grade 5 discounts or over-1,000-pound carcass weight discounts.

Heavier Weights in Line With Expectations

Market analysts issued warnings during the year that the additional beef production from the escalation in carcass weights was risking a collapse of the wholesale beef market.

Now wait a minute.

The average fed carcass weight for 2024 was 896 pounds, up 20 pounds over 2023. The 20-pound increase is not even in the top five year-over-year increases of the last 60 years. From a broader perspective, carcass weights have increased by an average of 4 pounds a year since 1960. When looking at just the years when carcass weights increased, the annual increase was an average of 12 pounds. The increase in 2024 was exactly what we should expect.

I first started buying fed cattle in Nebraska in the early 1980s. The plant I was buying for had specs for steers weighing 1,050 to 1,200 pounds and heifers weighing 950 to 1,100 pounds. I clearly remember sitting in meetings where meat salesmen would shout that the cattle we were buying were too big and didn’t fit the box.

Today, we are seeing carcass weights that are heavier than the live weights we were buying at the time. And we still hear fiery arguments that the cattle are too big, carcasses won’t fit the box, portion sizes are too big, and consumers are going to reject the product.

Time to Think Bigger

The historical trend for bigger carcass weights is not going to stop. More often than not, the downward corrections are due to escalating corn prices, not consumer rejection.

The genetics are better, with cattle designed to get big. The technology and science are better, allowing cattle to be healthier and perform better both in and outside the feed yard. Management and knowledge of cattle feeders are better, making cattle bigger.

Instead of arguing that the cattle are too big, it’s time to start concentrating on how to manage the bigger cattle and everything they produce.